Identifikasi Faktor Penentu Kerawanan Pangan melalui Model Prediktif Random Forest: Studi Regional di Provinsi Lampung
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.25181/jofsa.v9i2.4467Keywords:
Alih Fungsi, Machine Learning, Padi, Regional, RegressorAbstract
Kerawanan pangan masih menjadi persoalan serius di Provinsi Lampung meskipun wilayah ini dikenal sebagai salah satu sentra produksi pangan nasional. Kontradiksi antara surplus produksi padi, jagung, dan ubi kayu di tingkat makro dengan masih tingginya rumah tangga yang mengalami kerawanan pangan menunjukkan adanya kesenjangan dalam distribusi, akses, dan pemanfaatan pangan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengidentifikasi faktor-faktor penentu kerawanan pangan melalui penerapan model prediktif machine learning, khususnya algoritma Random Forest. Data sekunder diperoleh dari Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) periode 2014–2024 dengan variabel dependen Produk Domestik Regional Bruto (PDRB) sebagai indikator kesejahteraan masyarakat, serta 13 variabel independen yang merepresentasikan aspek dan ketahanan pangan, sosial, dan ekonomi. Hasil evaluasi model menunjukkan performa yang kuat dengan nilai Mean Squared Error (MSE) sebesar 12.830.318 dan koefisien determinasi (R²) sebesar 0,899, yang menandakan kemampuan prediksi tinggi dan kesalahan relatif rendah. Uji feature importance mengungkap bahwa variabel Produksi Padi (0,3743) dan Luas Panen Padi (0,3415) merupakan determinan paling dominan, diikuti oleh Pengeluaran per Kapita Disesuaikan (0,1086) dan Persentase Penduduk Miskin (0,0713). Indikator pembangunan manusia dan ketenagakerjaan berkontribusi lebih kecil, sementara variabel lainnya relatif marginal. Temuan ini menegaskan bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah masih ditentukan oleh margin ekstensif berupa luasan dan volume produksi padi, sehingga rentan terhadap alih fungsi lahan maupun guncangan iklim. Rekomendasi kebijakan meliputi perlindungan lahan sawah, modernisasi irigasi, intensifikasi berkelanjutan, penguatan daya beli, serta peningkatan kualitas sumber daya manusia untuk mendorong ketahanan pangan yang lebih inklusif dan berkelanjutan di Lampung.
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