Kerangka Kebijakan Berbasis Risiko untuk Resiliensi Produksi Padi Pada Fenomena El Niño Ekstrem di Lampung, Indonesia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.25181/jplantasimbiosa.v8i1.4997Abstrak
Fenomena El Niño secara signifikan mengancam sistem produksi padi di wilayah tropis seperti Provinsi Lampung. Kajian ini merumuskan kerangka kebijakan adaptif berbasis risiko melalui integrasi analisis variabilitas iklim, kapasitas adaptasi lokal, dan hasil Focus Group Discussion (FGD). Menggunakan pendekatan mixed-methods, studi ini menganalisis data time-series iklim dan produksi padi tahun 1991-2024 beserta wawasan kualitatif partisipatif. Hasil kajian menunjukkan bahwa risiko utama meliputi kekeringan, penurunan produktivitas akibat stres air, hama, dan ketidakpastian kalender tanam. Namun, sistem produksi di Lampung memiliki kapasitas adaptasi yang kuat. Data empiris membuktikan bahwa adaptasi lokal, khususnya teknologi Alternate Wetting and Drying (AWD), mampu menghemat air hingga ±30%. Hal ini efektif meredam guncangan hasil, menekan potensi kehilangan dari >20% menjadi hanya ±1%, sekaligus mempertahankan tren pertumbuhan produksi jangka panjang. Kajian ini mengusulkan model kebijakan terintegrasi yang menghubungkan risiko iklim, kapasitas adaptasi, dan intervensi kebijakan. Temuan ini menekankan pentingnya pendekatan berbasis risiko, integrasi data, dan skalabilitas adaptasi lokal, menjadikan Lampung sebagai model nasional untuk pertanian tangguh iklim.
Unduhan
Referensi
Andri, A., & Priantoro, R. D. (2020). El Nino 2015: Asosiasinya Dengan Kekeringan dan Dampaknya Terhadap Curah Hujan, Luas Panen dan Produksi Padi di Kabupaten Subang. Geomedia Majalah Ilmiah Dan Informasi Kegeografian, 18(2), 132–143. https://doi.org/10.21831/gm.v18i2.34959
Barrios-Perez, C., Tao, F., & Zhang, Z. (2021). How does ENSO affect rice production? Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 308–309, 108353. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108353
Bouman, B. A. M., Humphreys, E., Tuong, T. P., & Barker, R. (2007). Rice and water. Advances in Agronomy, 92, 187–237. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0065-2113(04)92004-4
Deutsch, C. A., Tewksbury, J. J., Tigchelaar, M., Battisti, D. S., Merrill, S. C., Huey, R. B., & Naylor, R. L. (2018). Increase in crop losses to insect pests in a warming climate. Science, 361(6405), 916–919. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aat3466
Dulbari, Santosa, E., Koesmaryono, Y., & Sulistyono, E. (2018a). Production stability and quality of rice after lodging and flooding. Jurnal Ilmu Pertanian Indonesia, 23(1), 74–80. https://doi.org/10.18343/jipi.23.1.74
Dulbari, Santosa, E., Koesmaryono, Y., & Sulistyono, E. (2018b). Yield loss estimation on rice lodging due to strong wind and high rainfall incidents. Jurnal Agronomi Indonesia, 46(1), 17–23. https://doi.org/10.24831/jai.v46i1.14376
Frazier, A. G., Renschler, C. S., & Wood, N. J. (2022). Climate variability and rice production. Climate Services, 26, 100312. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2022.100312
Greatrex, H., Hansen, J. W., Garvin, S., Diro, R., Blakeley, S., Le Guen, M., Rao, K. N., & Osgood, D. E. (2015). Scaling up index insurance for smallholder farmers. Climate and Development, 7(4), 324–334. https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2015.1049276
Hansen, J. W., Mason, S. J., Sun, L., & Tall, A. (2011). Review of seasonal climate forecasting for agriculture. Experimental Agriculture, 47(2), 205–240. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0014479710000876
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2022). Climate change 2022: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Cambridge University Press.
Khairulbahri, M., Yulianti, D., & Hidayat, R. (2021). Climate change impacts on rice supply. Heliyon, 7(10), e08115. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2021.e08115
Lal, R. (2020). Soil organic matter and climate resilience. Soil and Tillage Research, 199, 104568. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.still.2020.104568
Lipper, L., Thornton, P., Campbell, B. M., Baedeker, T., Braimoh, A., Bwalya, M., Caron, P., Cattaneo, A., Garrity, D., Henry, K., Hottle, R., Jackson, L., Jarvis, A., Kossam, F., Mann, W., McCarthy, N., Meybeck, A., Neufeldt, H., Remington, T., Sen, P. T., & Sessa, R. (2014). Climate-smart agriculture for food security. Nature Climate Change, 4, 1068–1072. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2437
Manzanilla, D. O., Paris, T. R., Vergara, G. V., Ismail, A. M., Pandey, S., Labios, R. V., & Tatlonghari, G. T. (2011). Submergence risks and rice adaptation. Agricultural Systems, 104(4), 335–347. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2010.12.005
Naylor, R. L., Falcon, W. P., Rochberg, D., & Wada, N. (2002). Using ENSO climate data to predict rice production in Indonesia. Climatic Change, 50, 255–272. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1016308712738
Naylor, R. L., Battisti, D. S., Vimont, D. J., Falcon, W. P., & Burke, M. B. (2007). Climate risks and rice production in Indonesia. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 104(19), 7752–7757. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0701825104
Ostrom, E. (2009). A general framework for sustainability of social-ecological systems. Science, 325(5939), 419–422. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1172133
Pretty, J., Toulmin, C., & Williams, S. (2011). Sustainable intensification in agriculture. Science, 341(6141), 33–34. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1234485
Sahu, N., Behera, S. K., Yamashiki, Y., Takara, K., Sahu, L., & Yamagata, T. (2020). Impact of climate variability on rice yield. Sustainability, 12(17), 7023. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12177023
Salassi, M. E., Deliberto, M. A., & Linscombe, S. D. (2013). Impact of lodging on rice yield. Agronomy Journal, 105(6), 1860–1867. https://doi.org/10.2134/agronj2013.0238
Stuecker, M. F., Tigchelaar, M., Kantar, M. B., & Battisti, D. S. (2018). ENSO impacts on agriculture. PLOS ONE, 13(8), e0201426. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0201426
Subash, N., Singh, S. S., & Priya, N. (2011). Rainfall variability and rice productivity. Agricultural Water Management, 98(9), 1373–1387. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2011.04.003
Wassmann, R., Jagadish, S. V. K., Heuer, S., Ismail, A., Redoña, E., Serraj, R., Singh, R. K., Howell, G., Pathak, H., & Sumfleth, K. (2009). Climate change affecting rice production. Advances in Agronomy, 101, 59–122. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0065-2113(08)00802-X
Wassmann, R., Jagadish, S. V. K., Sumfleth, K., Pathak, H., Howell, G., Ismail, A., Serraj, R., Redoña, E., Singh, R. K., & Heuer, S. (2010). Regional vulnerability of climate change impacts on Asian rice production and scope for adaptation. Advances in Agronomy, 102, 91–133. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0065-2113(09)01003-7
Unduhan
Diterbitkan
Cara Mengutip
Terbitan
Bagian
Lisensi
Hak Cipta (c) 2026 Rizky Rahmadi, Desi Maulida, Dulbari Dulbari
Artikel ini berlisensiCreative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
