Analisis Permintaan Dan Penawaran Komoditas Kedelai di Indonesia

Abstract

The development of the food industry and animal feed made from soybeans , coupled with population growth resulted in soybean demand in Indonesia has increased. However , domestic production capabilities have not been able to meet demand. Therefore, meeting the needs of domestic soybean imports have been made. The occurrence of gaps and needs soybean production should be a concern of various parties to improve the national soybean production. This study aims to estimate the parameters of the variables that affect the demand and supply of soybeans, projections of demand and supply, and analyze the prospects for supply to meet the demand of soybean. Data used in this study consisted of primary and secondary data. Secondary data aggregated time series over the period 1985-2011. The analysis method used is quantitatively and qualitatively. Quantitative analysis was performed with the estimated econometric model of supply and demand (system of simultaneous equations ). The results of the study showed that soybean demand is influenced by soybean prices, commodity prices competitors, population, income per capita, and the lag demand. Soybean prices have a significant effect on the demand for soybeans. Supply is affected by soybean production, imports and other ( waste and the need for other use ). Based on the data of projected deficit turned out to soybean production remained high until 2025. To cover the deficit, the soybean imports remains high . For that, we need a breakthrough policy related to the increase in the national soybean production through improved farming technology and the expansion of planting area . Keywords: soybean, demand, supply, simultaneous equations.