Fitriani Fitriani


Rice is the staple food of Indonesian society. The national rice production capability depends not only on the technical and economic aspects of production but also on the environmental carrying capacity, especially the availability of adequate rainfall and climate. The cyclical changes of extreme climate that occur affect the performance of national rice production. This study aims to determine the impact of extreme climate on national rice production. The research method used linear regression with El Nino (D1) and La Nina (D2) as extreme dummy extreme free variable and national rice production as its bound factor. The data used are based on BPS Indonesia with the duration of 1980-2011. The analysis shows that the presence of cyclically extreme climate has a significant effect on national rice production. Climate change has a negative and positive impact on rice production. El-Nino has a negative impact, while La Nina is the opposite. The difference in the size of the impact of climate change can be seen from the slope difference in the variable coefficient.


Key words: climate changing, El-Nino, La-Nina, production, rice


Arifin B. 2010a. The Future of Agriculture in Climate Change Era. Kompas. 18 October 2010.

. 2010b. Innovation for Productivity. Kompas. 5 July 2010.

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology. 2012. Record-Breaking La Nina Events. [online; cited July 2012] Available from URL:

Coordinator Ministry of Economic Department. 2011. Annual Accountability Report. Coordinator Ministry of Economic Department, Jakarta

FAO. 1993. Rice In human Nutrition. Food and Nutrition Series. FAO, Rome

Indonesia Statistic Bureau, 2011. Indonesia Statistic. Central BPS. Jakarta

_____________________. 2016. Indonesia Statistic. Central BPS. Jakarta

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Chang). 2001. Climate Change 2001. Impact. Adaptation. and Vulnerability. Cambridge. UK. Cambride University Press.

Irawan B. 2006, Fenomena Anomali Iklim El Nino dan La Nina: Kecenderungan Jangka Panjang dan Pengaruhnya pada P Pangan. Forum Penelitian Agro Ekonomi. 24(1): 28-45.

Sawit M. Husein. 2007. The World Rice Policy Purposes: The wrong recipe. Mubyarto article.

Todaro, Michael P. 2000. The Third Wold Economic Development. Erlangga Publisher. Jakarta.


  • There are currently no refbacks.